Despite some recent technical indications that the corn rally may have gone far enough for the short term, futures were able to shrug off overnight weakness and climb higher on Thursday — until midday. News that the Trump administration was unveiling a $16 billion new farm aid package and the resulting confusion sent corn prices reeling, with soybeans and wheat pressured as well. The second attempt of July corn to breach weekly trend-line resistance sets up a possible double top at $3.99.
Midday: Grains lead at midday, with soybeans lagging ahead of MFP announcement.
Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents higher at midday with trade finding support from the wet forecast with trade still below $4.00 July. Wet weather is expected to remain in place for much of the western and central Corn Belt keeping the slow pace slow with warming temps will help emergence in spots, and the second week a little less wet.
Ethanol margins are negative on a spot basis with ethanol futures unable to keep pace with corn and the energy complex sell off narrowing blender margins. Basis has seen selling pressure from farmer movement. Weekly export sales were in line with expectations at 442,100 metric tons of old crop, and 183,900 of new.
On the July nearby chart support is the 200-day at $3.86 3/4 with the 100-day at $3.81 below that, and the with the next level of resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $3.97, and then the recent high at $4.00.
Soybean trade is flat to 2 cents lower with active two sided trade again with everyone waiting for more clarity on the rumored $2.00 a bushel trade aid expected to come out this afternoon, and if it is tied to 2019 production. Meal is narrowly mixed and oil is 25 to 35 points lower.
Crush margins remain solidly positive overall with meal still remaining below $300 with a test of resistance overnight. South American currencies remain cheap at the end of harvest, with the export wire quiet this week.
Field work should generally remain slow in the near term but more progress is likely into next week with little incentive for farmers to push right now along with acres possibly shifting to corn or milo with the corn soybeans ratio the narrowest in 8 years if the government doesn’t pay to keep them in beans.
The weekly export sales were inline with expectations at 535,800 metric tons of old crop, 5,100 of new crop, 188,000 of old meal, 112,000 new, and 9,100 of oil.
The July chart support is the $7.98 lower Bollinger Band with the $7.91 low below that, and the resistance the 10-day at $8.25, which we are just above, with the next round the 20-day at $8.33, which we are tested but failed to hold yet again.
Wheat trade is 3 to 11 cents higher with spreads swinging back to favor Chicago after narrowing the first half of the week with disease and demand concerns dominating.
Europe and the Black Sea area will be watched with dryness in the Volga Valley expected to be eased in the near term, with spring wheat planting still catching up with disease issues in the winter wheat from wet weather. The dollar is back at the upper end of the range.
Hard red wheat is working into feed rations in some areas with the bounce in corn values. The weekly export sales were 48,400 metric tons of old crop, and 344,900 of new.
On the July Kansas City chart, support is the 50-day at $4.26 with the 100-day at $4.62 the next round up.