DTN Grain Close: Soybeans Recover; Wheat, Corn Take a Breather

No-till soybeans in crop residue. Photo: Iowa State University

Following Tuesday’s volatile midday trade, which is attributed to a Bloomberg story about an impending second farm aid package, the markets have quieted. Wheat and corn appear ready to take a breather from the torrid short-covering rally of the past seven days, while soybeans have recovered a bit but remain below the short-term moving averages, as the trade awaits an official announcement from the Trump administration.


Midday: Corn is flat to 2 cents higher, soybeans are 6-8 cents higher and wheat is 3 to 6 cents lower. Outside markets are mixed.


Corn trade is flat to 2 cents higher at midday. Trade has rebounded from the overnight profit-taking with the wet forecast still in place and user margins continuing to compress. Wet weather is expected to remain in place for much of the western and central Corn Belt, keeping the pace slow. Warming temps will help emergence in spots.

Ethanol margins have faded on the more expensive corn and ethanol futures unable to keep pace even with some improvement. The weekly report shows production 20,000 barrels per day higher and stocks 1.154 million barrels higher. Basis has seen selling pressure from farmer movement.

On the July nearby chart, support is the 200-day at $3.86 3/4 with the 100-day at $3.81 below that. The next level of resistance is the upper Bollinger Band at $3.92, which we are back above at midday, and then the recent high at $4.00.


Soybean trade is 7 to 9 cents higher with trade bouncing back from the weakness Tuesday. Everyone is waiting for more clarity on the rumored $2.00 trade aid and if it will be tied to 2019 production. Meal is $3.50 to $4.50 higher and oil is 10 to 20 points higher.

Crush margins remain solidly positive overall with meal still remaining below $300. South American currencies remain cheap at the end of harvest, with the export wire quiet this week.

Fieldwork should generally remain slow in the near term, but more progress is likely into next week with little incentive for farmers to push right now along with acres possibly shifting to corn or milo with the corn soybeans ratio the narrowest in eight years if the government doesn’t pay to keep them in beans.

The July chart support is the $7.98 lower Bollinger Band with the $7.91 low below that. Resistance is the 10-day at $8.22, which we are just above, with the next round the 20-day at $8.35, which we have tested but failed to hold.


Wheat trade is 3 to 7 cents lower with KC trade leading. Spreads continue to move back to favoring the higher-protein wheats with wet weather concerns and less spillover support from outside markets.

Europe and the Black Sea area will be watched with dryness in the Volga Valley expected to be eased in the near term and wet weather in the U.S. potentially limiting planting and causing disease issues in winter wheat. The dollar remains range bound. Hard red wheat is working into feed rations in some areas with the bounce in corn values.

On the July KC chart, support is the 50-day at $4.27 with the 100-day at $4.63 the next round up.

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