The cotton market finished lower Wednesday as there was no bullish inspiration to be found. The Chinese trade talks are non-existent, and despite pockets of adverse weather, the planting of the 2019 crop is pacing its historical track. Thus, with a potential for much larger crop, plus the loss of a major customer, the cotton market is wounded — and that’s an understatement.
One hope for the cotton market is Thursday’s weekly sales and exports. It is anticipated sales will be huge as the report reflects the time when old crop prices spike massively lower. If those sales do not materialize, not only will the outcome be numerically bearish, but psychologically bearish as well. In our multi-decade experience in trading cotton, it is never friendly when the market has to rely on one report or one number to stem a bearish tide. It is akin to putting your life saving on one color of one roll of the roulette wheel.
The technical trend of cotton remains steeply bearish. By all measurements of the most widely used chart indicators, participants continue to suggest even lower prices are soon forthcoming. Obviously, the market needs a watershed event, such a trade deal or an obvious weather scare somewhere in the Northern Hemisphere, to change its attitude and then perhaps lift its altitude.
For Wednesday, July cotton settled at 66.75 cents, down 0.57 cent, December is at 66.16 cents, down 0.72 cent and March is at 67.01 cents off 0.60 cent. Overnight estimated volume was 2,500 contracts.