Dossett on Rice: Iraq Flip Flop and Then There’s the Weather

Rice planting. Photo: University of Arkansas

Cash Market

Thailand and India White 5% broken made a little jump this week.  Thai rice moved up to $413 MT, India moved up to $377 MT. Thailand is maintaining its forecast of 10 mmt exports in 2019. The monsoon in India is forecast to start on time around Memorial Day. 

Iraq did a double take by announcing a US-only tender for long grain white five days ago.  They promptly cancelled it two days later.  Then on Friday, May 17, they announced another US-only tender.  Apparently tension with Iran and fear of military action is the reason for the flip flop on the rice tender.

Weekly exports reported on Thursday, May 16 were good at 78,700 MT.  Mexico led the charge, followed by many Central American and Korean buyers.

Weather

Forecasts on Friday, May 17, call for dryer weather in Mississippi and Central Arkansas over the next ten days.  Farther north at Pocahontas, Arkansas and Poplar Bluff, Missouri, there is rain forecast until May 22.  Looks like the big rain will move north to Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri.  The most intense rains in the next five days will be in Kansas on the almost-mature wheat.


Rice – Rain, Delays And Complications Stack Up In Push To Finish Planting – AgFax Rice   5-16


Futures Market

It is hard to believe that we are experiencing the most severe weather challenges in many years and demand, as reported in weekly export numbers, is very strong but the July futures have stagnated at $11.00 cwt. We still have only 663 registered receipts and some of those may be shipped down the river.

We have firsthand reports of rice moving to Osceola, Arkansas to two different loading facilities, which would indicate demand in New Orleans. May futures went off the board at $10.815.

As I mentioned last week, the reason July futures are stalled at $11.00 is because the big short seller has to defend the 150 Day MA.  If we close above that price, we will attack the March 25, 26, and 27 highs at $11.37 cwt.

If the rain does not stop and the USDA will finally realize and report the reduced acreage and yields, this market can go much higher.  Stay dry and buy the dips in July rice.

Markham B. Dossett was a charter member of the New Orleans Commodity Exchange. He has traded rice since early 1981.  He owns Talon Asset Management, LLC where he hedges rice, soybeans, corn, wheat, cotton and cattle for producers in the South and Southwest. 

** Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.


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