The cotton market finished its Thursday session slightly higher despite the fact it is severely oversold, and weekly sales and export were decent enough. To the former, the market has been absolutely trounced this week, starting with Monday’s limit-down trade. Then, after another 1-cent lower spike Tuesday night, the market slowly began to rear its head.
However, the participation dynamics have changed. The speculator has reserved from a net long position to a net short position. Thus, on any intra-rally they appear as willing sellers, protecting their new-found position.
To the latter fundamental, sales and exports were fractionally down from last week, but there was also a noticeable absence of China in the group of buyers. Several analysts had indicated the report was overall friendly, which numerically was true, given the total of both crop years exceeded 400,000 bales sold. However, in its present weakened state, the market needed bullish psychology more than bullish numbers. That is, it needed to see China in the trade mix.
Given that tomorrow is Friday, and after such an arduous week, we would not be surprised to see the market edge higher. Still, to really see it run up as many would like to see, would require something of a trade “miracle” with China, and we do not foresee that event in Friday’s forecast.
For Thursday, July cotton closed at 66.80 cents, up 0.45 cent, December finished at 67.09 cents, up 0.20 cent and March settled at 68.15 cent, up 0.33 cent. Estimated volume was 25,540 contracts.