In one of the first supply and demand forecasts for crops that largely still need a window for planting, USDA projected 2.485 billion bushels of ending stocks for corn and 970 million bushels of soybeans ending stocks for 2019-20.
USDA released its monthly Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand estimates on Friday. The reports offered early estimates of 2019-20 new-crop production and ending stocks estimates for corn, soybeans and wheat.
USDA also has made some modifications to the new report. Under price forecasts for crops, USDA will no longer forecast a price range, but a single midpoint price. In world ending stocks, USDA will provide a new line forecasting ending stocks “World less China.” The list of major exports also eliminates the “Former Soviet Union” designation of countries.
Friday’s new-crop U.S. ending stocks estimates were bearish for corn, soybeans and wheat, said DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman. World ending stocks estimates from USDA were also bearish for corn, soybeans and wheat, he said.
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Because DTN and other news outlets no longer have pre-release access to the reports, instead of one story, we are now sending a series of updates with each including more information as our analysts and reporters digest and analyze the new numbers.
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The 2019-20 (new crop) production was projected at 15.03 billion bushels. Ending stocks were projected at 2.485 billion bushels. USDA projects new crop demand at 6.95 billion for feed, residual use and industrial use and 5.5 billion bushels for ethanol use with both of those demand elements raised 50 million bushels higher than the 2018-19 crop.
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If realized, the 15-billion-bushel crop would be the second largest on record, behind 2016-17. With 390 million bushels higher ending stocks, the 2019-20 ending stocks of 2.485 bb would be the highest stocks since 1987-88.
In exports, USDA projects 2.275 billion bushels of exports for the new crop, which is 25 million bushels lower than in the 2018-19 crop. USDA cited increased exports out of Argentina and Brazil for their 2018-19 crops as limiting U.S. corn exports for the first half of 2019-20. Exports from Russia and Ukraine also are expected to decline.
The 2018-19 (old-crop) ending stocks are pegged at 2.095 billion bushels. The pre-report analysts’ forecast projected ending stocks at 2.06 billion bushels.
USDA forecast the midpoint price for corn in 2019-20 at $3.30 a bushel, down 20 cents from the mid-price for the old crop.
Brazil’s 2018-19 corn production was projected at 100 million metric tons. Argentina’s production was forecast at 49 million metric tons. The Brail forecast was 4 million metric tons higher than pre-report estimates.
Under the new line of world ending stocks outside of China, USDA pegged those stocks at 122.90 million metric tons.
USDA projects the 2019-20 (new-crop) soybean production at 4.15 billion bushels, up 394 million bushels from the 2018-19 (old-crop) year. Soybean new-crop ending stocks are pegged at 970 million bushels.
Old-crop ending stocks are estimated at 995 million bushels, up 95 million bushels from last month’s estimate of 900 million bushels.
The new-crop projected average farm gate price came in at $8.10 per bushel, down from the old-crop average of $8.55.
USDA raised its estimates for China’s 2019-20 soybean imports to 87.0 million metric tons, up from 86.0 mmt last year.
USDA lowered Brazil’s 2018-19 soybean production to 117 mmt, down 3 mmt from last year. Argentina’s 2018-19 production was raised to 56 mmt, from last year’s 37.8 mmt.
USDA pegged total wheat production in 2019 at 1.897 bb, up from 1.884 bb last year. Of that, 1.27 bb is expected to be winter wheat, up 7% from 2018. The average winter wheat yield was pegged at 50.3 bpa, up 2.4 bushels from last year’s average yield of 47.9 bpa.
Hard red winter production was estimated at 780 mb, up 18% from last year. Soft red winter production, at 265 mb, is down 7%. White winter production was pegged at 224 mb, down 5%.
The 2019-20 (new crop) U.S. wheat ending stocks were pegged at 1.141 bb, up/down from 944 mb projected at USDA’s Ag Outlook conference in February. That figure came within the range of pre-report estimates.
The 2018-19 (old crop) U.S. wheat ending stocks were estimated at 1.127 bb, up from the April estimate of 1.087 bb, but within pre-report expectations.
USDA calculated the average farmgate price for new-crop wheat to be $4.70 per bushel, down from $5.20 per bushel for old-crop wheat.
World ending stocks for new-crop wheat were 293.01 mmt, well above pre-report expectations. Old-crop wheat ending stocks were pegged at 274.98 mmt, down slightly from 275.6 mmt in April.
Editor’s Note: USDA’s May WASDE report will have lots of new numbers to examine and possibly even a surprise or two. Join us Friday at noon CDT for DTN’s post-report webinar when I will review USDA’s estimates and answer your questions. Sign up for Friday’s webinar here.
|U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2018-2019|
|U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2019-20|
|WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million metric tons) 2018-2019|
|WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2019-20|
|WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons) 2018-19|
|WHEAT PRODUCTION (million bushels) 2019-20|