WASDE Wheat: Increased Supplies Outweigh Higher Domestic Use

Photo: Texas AgriLife Extension

The initial outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, higher domestic use, lower exports, and larger stocks. Supplies are increased by 41 million bushels year to year with higher carry-in stocks and larger production. The 2019/20 U.S. wheat crop is projected at 1.897 million bushels, up less than 1 percent from last year as a higher yield more than offsets reduced harvested acreage.

The all-wheat yield is projected at 48.6 bushels per acre, up 1.0 bushel from last year. The first 2019 NASS survey-based winter wheat production forecast indicated larger Hard Red Winter production more than offsetting smaller Soft Red Winter and White Wheat crops.

Total 2019/20 domestic use is projected up 5 percent with increases in all usage categories. Exports are projected at 900 million bushels, down 25 million from the revised 2018/19 exports.

The 2019/20 global export situation is expected to be highly competitive for the United States with all of the other major exporters projected to have larger supplies. Ending stocks for 2019/20 are projected 14 million bushels higher than last year at 1,141 million. The projected season-average farm price is $4.70 per bushel, down from last year’s estimated $5.20 on the expectation of greater export competition and lower U.S. corn prices.

The initial outlook for 2019/20 international wheat is for larger supplies, increased trade, greater consumption, and higher ending stocks. Foreign supplies are projected to increase 38.5 million tons to 966.4 million as all of the major wheat exporters (Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Russia, and Ukraine) are expected to have higher production for 2019/20.

The EU is projected to have the largest increase to 153.8 million tons, as it recovers from last year’s drought. Russia is projected to have its second-largest wheat production on record at 77.0 million tons. Collectively, the major foreign exporters’ projected output rises 33.9 million tons, up 11 percent from last year.

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Additionally, the Middle East region is expected to have significantly larger production with abundant rainfall as both Iran and Iraq are projected to have record output while Syria and Turkey have near-record production.

Projected 2019/20 global trade is 6.7 million tons or 4 percent higher at 184.6 million with greater exportable supplies and lower expected export prices. Russia is projected as the leading world wheat exporter for the third consecutive year with exports at 36.0 million tons, down slightly from 37.0 million for 2018/19. But all other major foreign exporters are projected to have higher exports than last year.

Projected 2019/20 world consumption increases 21.6 million tons from last year to a record-large 759.5 million tons with both food, seed, and industrial use and feed use significantly higher. Global ending stocks increase 18.0 million tons or 7 percent to a record-large 293.0 million. World stocks less China are projected at 146.8 million tons, up 11.8 million from last year.

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