WASDE Rice: Large Increase in U.S. Beginning Stocks; Reduced Production

Rice harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

The 2019/20 outlook for U.S. rice is for higher supplies, exports, domestic use, and ending stocks. For the 2018/19 market year, imports and exports are each reduced 1.0 million cwt, and the season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per cwt to $12.00. U.S. 2019/20 all rice production is projected at 218.2 million cwt, down 3 percent from the previous year.

Both long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain production are projected to be smaller this year. The year-over-year supply increase stems from an 82 percent increase in beginning stocks. Total U.S. rice supplies are projected to increase more than 6 percent to 299.8 million cwt.

U.S. 2019/20 total use is projected at 241.0 million cwt, up nearly 6 percent from the previous year with both domestic and residual use and exports higher. Long-grain exports are projected up 9 percent to 72.0 million cwt, and combined medium- and short-grain exports are up 7 percent to 29.0 million cwt.

Both export changes are based on improved price competitiveness and larger exportable supplies. All rice ending stocks are projected at 58.8 million cwt, up 10 percent and the largest since the 1985/86 market year. The 2019/20 all rice season-average farm price is projected at $11.20 per cwt, down $0.80 from last year’s revised price.

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World rice production for 2019/20 is projected at 498.4 million tons, down fractionally from the previous year’s record. China and India lead production declines with crops reduced 2.5 million tons and 1.0 million tons, respectively. Vietnam, Thailand, Bangladesh, and Indonesia have the largest production increases.

Global rice consumption is projected at a record 496.1 million tons, up 4.1 million. Global exports for 2019/20 are projected at a record 47.6 million tons, up 0.9 million from the previous year. World 2019/20 ending stocks are projected at a record 172.2 million tons with China projected to hold 68 percent of global stocks.

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