Mostly higher trade at midday.
Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday in choppy trade so far with weather and trade remaining center stage in the near term. The forecast significant rains are expected to fall the next few days for much of the belt with the first part of May above normal moisture wise for most before shifting towards cool and dry next week for much of the belt. Ethanol margins remain within the recent range, with blenders still seeing the most benefit with ethanol futures flat today. T
he weekly crop progress report showed planting at 23% vs. 46% on average with emerged at 6% vs. 13% on average. Basis will be choppy with river disruptions, and mixed demand, along with slow movement by farmers.
On the July nearby chart support is the recent low at $3.52 with trade able to close above the 10-day at $3.63 5/8 with resistance the 20-day at $3.65 5/8 which we have tested this morning with the 50-day at $3.73 1/2.
Soybean trade is 2 to 3 cents higher with trade seeing light two sided action with the market looking for a reason for recent shorts to cover, or to add to their position depending on trade progress. Meal is $1.50 to $2.50 lower and oil is flat to 10 points lower. Crush margins should still be positive in the near term. South American currencies remain cheap at the end of harvest, with real remaining just off the lows.
Field work should generally remain slow in the near term. Trade talks are still scheduled for the 9th and 10th. The weekly crop progress report showed 6% planted vs. 14% on average.
The July chart support is the fresh low at $8.17, with resistance the 10-day moving average at $8.51.
Wheat trade is 1 to 4 cents higher at midday with trade fighting off the test of the lower end of the range overnight with trade working to turn the charts more positive. Europe and the Black Sea area will be watched more as their growing season keeps moving with mixed to good conditions so far and spring wheat seeding on going.
The U.S. high Plains look wet for Oklahoma and Texas along with central and eastern Kansas, and the north likely to see some mixed progress with potentially more open weather again near term along with warmer weather. Some disease issues could show up on the wet weather. The dollar has bounced but hasn’t further extended the rally.
The weekly progress report showed conditions unchanged at 64% good to excellent and 8% poor to very poor with 29% headed vs. 41% last year, and spring wheat 22% planted vs. 49% on average with 4$ emerged vs. 19% on average.
On the July Kansas City chart, support the fresh lows at $3.90 1/2, with the lower Bollinger Band at $3.89, and resistance the 10-day at $4.03 3/4 which we are just above at midday, with the 20-day the next round up at $4.16 1/2.
The U.S. stock market indices are weaker with the Dow 380 points lower. The interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 15 higher. Energies are weaker with crude down 0.95. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. Precious metals are mixed with gold up 1.50.