DTN Grain Close: Soybeans Take a Turn Sliding to New Lows

Photo: Kevin Hudson, Mississippi State University

Both old-crop and new-crop soybean prices fell to their lowest closes in seven months Tuesday, succumbing to noncommercial selling and concerns about record ending supplies. July corn fell 3 1/4 cents lower while all three wheats negotiated small gains for the day.


Midday: Corn and soybeans score fresh lows, with wheat mixed.


Corn trade is 3 to 5 cents lower with trade score fresh lows with fund selling building over the course of the session. The short-fund position is pushing towards 340,000 short or more with the fresh action this morning. The forecast should allow for better progress in much of the Belt this week with the north remaining slowest, and a potentially wetter start to May.

Ethanol blender margins will see another boost with the surge in the energy complex to start the week with ethanol futures remain flat. South American harvest should continue to move along toward completion. The weekly crop progress report pegged planting at 6% vs. 12% on average.

On the May nearby chart support is the fresh low at $3.50 1/4, with the 10-day at $3.59 nearby resistance, and then the 20-day at $3.62.


Soybean trade is 12 to 14 cents lower with bigger selling building over the course of the day session with the fall lows coming out. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 lower, and oil is 40 to 50 points lower.

Crush margins have faded but remain solidly positive with meal still holding the $300 level at midday/ South American currencies remain cheap as soybean harvest winds down with the real edging slightly higher but still at the lower end of the range. The daily export wire has been quiet in recent days. The first crop progress report scored 1% planted vs. 2% on average.

On the May chart, support is the fresh low at $8.64, with resistance clustered in the $8.89 to $8.91 range.


Wheat trade is 1 cent lower to 3 cents higher with light short covering at midday after initial selling pressure again overnight and the weak row cop trade. Europe and the Black Sea area will be watched closely for further rains, with a mixed start to the year overall and no major concerns currently and better rains for France and Romania on tap.

The U.S. high Plains look wet for Oklahoma and Texas, with Kansas seeing a generally drier tint, and the north more open for progress in the next few days. The weekly crop conditions were 2 percentage points better at 62% good to excellent, and 8% poor to very poor and heading at 9% vs. 18% on average, while spring wheat was 5% planted vs. 22% on average.

On the May Kansas City chart, support the fresh lows at $4.08, with the lower Bollinger Band at $4.11, and resistance the 10-day at $4.23.

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