DTN Cotton Open: Sharply Lower on “Gravity”

The market is lower Tuesday in obedience to the gravitational laws of what goes up, must come down. Since mid-February, the market has sustained a 6-cent rally with little correction. Part of that rally was caused by the hopes for a trade deal, and the other was the low intentions number issued by USDA. Yet as of now, there is no trade deal, and the crop is being planted on a normal pace.

To the latter, the crop stands at 9% planted compared to 10% same time last year, and 9% on its five-year pace. Specifically, Texas is 12% planted versus 14% in 2018, and 11% on her five-year average. Georgia is 6% seeded compared to 4% last season, versus 3% on her five-year pace.

It stands to reason if the spring planting season unfolds with little to no adversity, producers may plant more acres than they intended. Thus, it would not surprise us to see June’s acre numbers higher than March’s intentions.

Wednesday, May cotton enters its notice period. Recently, there has been an uptick in certified stocks. That doesn’t necessarily mean deliveries will occur, but at least there is cotton waiting in the wings, which can be delivered. For Tuesday, support for July cotton stands at 77.90 cents and 77.55 cents, with resistance at 79.15 cents and 79.57 cents. Overnight estimated volume is 8,032 contracts.

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