Both old-crop and new-crop corn prices along with two of the three July wheat contracts fell to new contract lows on Monday as spring weather starts to look a little more favorable in 2019. May soybeans were also lower with ongoing concerns of record ending stocks.
Midday: Wheat is the downside leader at midday; some follow-though selling is noted.
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower at midday with trade back to test the contract lows again as we return from Easter weekend that contained warmer weather. There is little fresh news today. The continued fund selling was seen on the CFTC weekly report after the conclusion of trade last week. The record net fund short is now thought to be over 330,000.
The forecast should allow for better progress in much of the Belt this week with the north remaining slowest. Ethanol blender margins will see another boost with the surge in the energy complex to start the week with ethanol futures remain flat.
South American harvest should continue to move along toward completion. The weekly export inspections were strong at 1.335 million metric tons. The weekly crop progress report will likely show planting progress a step behind average.
On the May nearby chart support is the recent low at $3.55 then $3.52, with the 10-day at $3.60 nearby resistance, and then the 20-day at $3.63.
Soybean trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with trade following the corn and wheat trade lower after some early light positive trade. Meal is flat to $1.00 lower and oil is unchanged. Crush margins have faded but remain solidly positive.
South American currencies remain cheap as soybean harvest winds down with the real edging slightly higher this a.m. On the trade front further negotiations were announced with a projected end date in late May with trade remaining in show me mode. The weekly export inspections remained soft at 382,298 metric tons.
On the May chart, support is the recent low at $8.76 1/2, and then the six-month low at $8.71, with resistance clustered in the $8.91 to $8.94 range.
Wheat trade is 6 to 8 cents lower with fund selling still dominating in the absence of fresh positive news. Europe and the Black Sea area will be watched closely for further rains, with a mixed start to the year overall and no major concerns currently. The U.S. high Plains look wet for Oklahoma and Texas, with Kansas seeing a generally drier tint, and the north more open for progress.
Weekly export inspections were good at 811,850 metric tons. The weekly crop progress report is expected to show steady ratings, with maturity near the five-year average for winter wheat, while spring wheat will remain behind normal on planting progress, but should start to narrow the gap this week.
On the May Kansas City chart, support the fresh lows at $4.11 1/4, with the lower Bollinger Band at $4.13, and resistance the 10-day at $4.25.