DTN Cotton Open: Lower on Disappointing Exports

Texas no-till cotton in corn residue. Photo: Larry Stalcup, AgFax Media

Thursday’s weekly sales and exports report was the last potential friendly news ahead of the long three-day Easter holiday. Although USDA reported numbers considered to be “okay”, today’s data was just not good enough. USDA reported net sales of 217,600 bales for 2018/2019. That was down 25 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average.

Top buyers were India (78,700), Vietnam (76,900), Bangladesh (26,000), Turkey (17,300), and South Korea (10,400). There were reductions for Hong Kong (4,500), Malaysia (3,800), and Japan (3,300). For 2019/2020, net sales were 20,600 bales, primarily for Vietnam (7,900), El Salvador (7,400), and China (4,400).

Weekly shipments were 340,000 bales. They were down 11 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Top destinations were Vietnam (86,400), Pakistan (50,300), Turkey (47,600), Bangladesh (27,100), and Indonesia (25,700).

Net sales of Pima totaling 14,300 bales were down 53 percent from the previous week and 43 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for China (5,700), India (2,500), Turkey (2,100), and Austria (1,800). For 2019/2020, total net sales of 2,200 bales were for Vietnam.

Exports of 11,500 bales down 45 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were Peru (3,000), China (3,000), Vietnam (2,600), and Turkey (1,000).

The glaring black spot upon all this “white data” is China, noticeably absent in a big way. China may be sending a signal as to their importance in the trade talks and to the U.S. cotton industry.

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The U.S.-China trade negotiations are continuing and apparently the world’s two largest economies are moving closer to a final agreement. There is talk in the marketplace that President Trump and Chinese President Xi could meet next month to seal the deal.

The market is closed Friday in observance of the Good Friday/Easter holiday. Cotton will re-open Sunday night.

For today, close-in support for July cotton is 78.10 cents and 79.25 cents, with resistance at 77.37 cents and 79.57 cents. Overnight estimated volume is 4,905 contracts.

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