Cotton was lower Thursday as the highly anticipated weekly sales and exports report was less than friendly. As the old saying goes “Anticipation is always greater than Realization”. Thus, the basic ingredient missing in Thursday’s data was China.
For a couple of weeks, China has emerged as a prominent player in the U.S. export markets, but Thursday it was virtually absent. Also, weekly exports were disappointing. So, ahead of a three-day weekend, plus coming off its highest close to date, it was easy to see why the bull had nothing to eat and retreated.
Thursday was the lowest volume since February 28. For the week, Spot Cotton finished 0.80 cent lower. However, since its Valentine’s Day low, it has rallied nearly 6 cents up for all of March and into early April. To that end, a 50% retracement of that rally comes in about 76.00 cents basis December cotton.
Next week, traders can anticipate Monday’s crop progress, Wednesday’s First Notice Day (delivery) for the May contract and Thursday’s weekly sales and exports report. Additionally, the market will be keen to hear other new news on the U.S./China trade negotiations.
Thursday May cotton closed at 77.31 cents, down 0.80 cent, July finished at 78.21 cents, off 0.69 cent and December closed at 77.05 cents, down 0.36 cent. Thursday’s estimated volume was 25,000 contracts traded.