May contracts of corn and soybeans ended a little higher Monday after a weekend of heavy rain, snow and tornadoes, primarily in the eastern half of the U.S. Winter wheat contracts fell lower, erasing Friday’s gains with another favorable crop rating anticipated Monday afternoon.
Midday: Row crops are firmer at midday with wheat struggling.
Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with light buying amid slow near-term fieldwork, and rumored trade progress. The western belt should be more open in the near term with the central part still slow for now. Ethanol margins remain more in favor of the blender than the producer, with a big driving weekend coming and softer futures to start the week.
Argentina corn harvest is about 25% complete, and is priced to move on the world market. The weekly export inspections were solid at 1.182 million metric tons. The weekly crop progress report is expected show planting progress still close to normal despite weather so far.
On the May nearby chart support is the recent low at $3.55 then $3.52, with the 10-day at $3.62 nearby resistance which we are just above at midday, and then the 20-day at $3.67.
Soybean trade is 3 to 4 cents higher at midday with trade moving back to the $9.00 yet again before fading with range-bound action continuing. Meal is $2.00 to $3.00 higher and oil is 10 to 20 points lower. Crush margins remain strong to support domestic usage, with basis mostly flat to firmer in the near term.
Argentina harvest will start to wind down with plenty of bushels flowing out of South America, and the local currencies firming a little to start the week.
Concrete trade progress remains lacking despite ongoing negotiations with more optimism coming out of the weekend. The weekly export inspections were soft at 460,667 metric tons, with 140,000 metric tons of old crop sold on the daily wire.
On the May chart support is the recent low at $8.93 3/4, and then the six-month low at $8.71, with resistance clustered in the $8.98 to $9.07 range which we have moved back into at midday.
Wheat trade is flat to 7 cents lower with spring wheat leading and fund selling weighing on the winter wheat again after a solid finish to last week.
French wheat has trended drier here in the near term, which will bear watching as they are the main EU exporter but it remains early. The U.S. should find more export business with Egypt active again but Romania origin won the last tender.
The lower dollar should add some support, and Kansas looks drier in the near term, but moisture is very good for the moment. The weekly export inspections were inline with recent weeks at 511,400 metric tons. The weekly crop progress report is expected be slightly better for winter wheat with heading near average, with spring wheat planting still behind normal.
On the May Kansas City chart, support the recent lows at $4.18, with the lower Bollinger Band at $4.24, and resistance the 10-day at $4.32 which we remain just below overnight, with the 20-day at $4.37.