Price movement in grains was so quiet Friday it felt like traders stayed home, until May contracts of Chicago and KC wheat pushed higher in the final minutes, ending up 4 cents and up 3 3/4 cents, respectively. Row crops stayed quiet on a day when most other commodities are trading higher.
Midday: Flat to weaker trade across the board at midday.
Corn trade is flat to a penny lower at midday with trade remaining rangebound in quiet action. The bulk of the Corn Belt looks to be slow in the near term with parts of the west more open in the extended forecast while the central and east parts of the belt remain wet with some fieldwork done this week.
Ethanol margins remain steady with ethanol futures slightly lower at midday, and strong blender margins. Corn basis remains steady to firmer. Argentina corn harvest is about 25% complete, and is priced to move.
On the May nearby chart support is the recent low at $3.55 then $3.52, with the 10-day at $3.62 nearby resistance, and then the 20-day at $3.67. In the bigger picture, corn is consolidating near its lows following the bigger supply side news from the USDA the past two weeks; now looking to planting weather for direction as we move toward May.
Soybean trade is fractionally lower in quiet trade with trade still unable to hold the $9.00 area nearby. Meal is flat to $1.00 higher and oil is 5 to 15 points lower. Crush margins remain strong to support domestic usage, with basis mostly flat to firmer in the near term.
Argentina harvest will start to wind down with plenty of bushels flowing out of South America, and the local currencies easing lower again, boosting their export advantage even with the weaker dollar to end the week. Concrete trade progress remains lacking despite ongoing negotiations.
On the May chart, support is the recent low at $8.93 3/4, and then the six-month low at $8.71, with resistance clustered in the $8.97 to $9.04 range.
Wheat trade is flat to 5 cents lower with early gains fading with wheat still struggling to build momentum after the good finish yesterday. French wheat has trended drier here in the near term, which will bear watching as they are the main EU exporter.
The U.S. should find more export business with Egypt active again but Romania origin secured today’s tender. The lower dollar should add some support, and Kansas looks drier in the near term, but moisture is very good for the moment.
On the May Kansas City chart support the recent lows at $4.18, with the lower Bollinger band at $4.24, and resistance the 10-day at $4.32 which we remain just below overnight, with the 20-day at $4.37.