USDA: Corn, Soy Stocks Change; South American Production Up – DTN

Soybean harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

USDA expects larger corn stocks remaining from the 2018-19 crop season. The agency pegged U.S. corn ending stocks at 2.035 billion bushels (bb), up from the 1.835 bb predicted by USDA in early March.

Soybean ending stocks were actually trimmed slightly, to 895 million bushels (mb), down from 900 mb last month.

USDA also boosted South American production corn and soybean production slightly, based on reports of good weather.

These numbers and more were released by USDA on Tuesday in the agency’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

Tuesday’s new U.S. ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn, soybeans and wheat, said DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman. World ending stocks estimates from USDA were bearish for corn and wheat and neutral for soybeans, he said.

For DTN’s exclusive audio comments on today’s reports, visit: here.

Because DTN and other news outlets no longer have pre-release access to the reports, instead of one story, we are now sending a series of updates with each including more information as our analysts and reporters digest and analyze the new numbers.

Check this page throughout the morning for important highlights from the reports and commentary from our analysts on what the numbers mean.

You can also access the full reports here:

  • Crop Production: here.
  • World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): here.

CORN

USDA projected an increase of 199.91 million bushels of corn ending stocks from last month, which came within the range of pre-report expectations. The agency left corn production at 14.420 billion bushels, but trimmed exports by 75 million bushels, down to 2.3 billion bushels. The remaining increase in stocks came from decreases in ethanol and food, seed and industrial use.

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USDA estimated the range of national average corn farm-gate prices at $3.40 to $3.70.

Global corn ending stocks for the 2018-19 marketing year were 314.01 million metric tons, an increase of 5.48 million metric tons from last month, and on the high end of pre-report expectations.

USDA estimates Brazilian farmers will harvest 96 mmt of corn, up from 94.5 mmt last month. USDA also boosted Argentina production to 47 mmt, up from 46 mmt last month.

SOYBEANS

USDA dropped U.S. soybean ending stocks 5 million bushels from last month, to 895 million bushels, which came in on the low end of pre-report expectations.

The agency left production at 4.544 bb from March. USDA left exports and crushings unchanged, but increased seed use by 2 million bushels, and trimmed imports by 3 million bushels.

USDA estimated the range of national average soybean farm-gate prices at $8.35 to $8.85.

Global soybeans ending stocks for the 2018-19 marketing year were 107.36 million metric tons, within the range of pre-report expectations.

USDA boosted Brazilian soybean production to 117 mmt of soybeans, up from last month’s 116.5 mmt estimate. The agency left Argentina production unchanged at 55 mmt.

WHEAT

USDA increased domestic wheat ending stocks for the 2018-19 marketing year at 1.087 billion bushels, an increase of 31.53 million bushels from last month, on the high end of pre-report expectations.

USDA estimated the range of national average wheat farm-gate prices at $5.15 to $5.25.

Global wheat ending stocks came in above pre-report expectations, with USDA projecting them to reach 275.61 mmt, up from 270.53 mmt. That change was based largely on the agency’s revisions in Iran, which resulted in raising world wheat supply by 2.1 mmt.

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Editor’s Note: Join DTN Analyst Todd Hultman at 12 p.m. CDT on Tuesday, April 9, for a look at what the day’s numbers mean for grain prices. To register, visit: here.

U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2018-2019
Apr Avg High Low Mar 2017-18
Corn 2,035 2,013 2,211 1,940 1,835 2,140
Soybeans 895 913 1,062 847 900 438
Wheat 1,087 1,076 1,103 1,045 1,055 1,099
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million metric tons) 2018-2019
Apr Avg High Low Mar 2017-18
Corn 314.0 312.4 315.1 308.9 308.5 341.2
Soybeans 107.4 108.4 114.6 106.5 107.2 98.6
Wheat 275.6 271.1 274.2 268.5 270.5 279.6
WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons) 2018-19
Apr Avg High Low Mar 2017-18
CORN
Argentina 47.0 46.8 49.0 46.0 46.0 32.0
Brazil 96.0 94.7 95.0 94.4 94.5 82.0
SOYBEANS
Argentina 55.0 55.5 56.0 54.5 55.0 37.8
Brazil 117.0 116.1 117.0 115.0 116.5 120.8

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