The outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat this month is for unchanged supplies but reduced exports and domestic use. The NASS Grain Stocks report, issued March 29, implied less feed and residual use for both the second and third quarters. Total 2018/19 feed and residual use is lowered 10 million bushels to 70 million. Wheat exports are lowered 20 million bushels to 945 million on a continued sluggish export pace.
By class, Hard Red Winter exports are raised 10 million bushels, which is offset by reductions of 15 million for Hard Red Spring, 10 million for White, and 5 million for Durum. These demand changes, as well as a small reduction in seed use, led to a 31.5-million-bushel-increase in ending stocks, which are now projected at 1,087 million bushels.
The season-average farm price is raised $0.05 per bushel at the midpoint to $5.20 based on updated NASS price and marketing data.
World 2018/19 wheat supplies are raised 2.1 million tons due mainly to increased beginning stocks that largely reflect multi-year revisions for Iran. Global production and exports are each reduced fractionally, but domestic consumption is lowered 2.9 million tons.
The consumption change stems primarily from lower Iran and EU feed and residual use; Iran is lowered on the series revision and the EU reduction is based on more competitive corn prices and increased coarse grain disappearance.
With supplies increasing and total use declining, global ending stocks are raised 5.1 million tons to 275.6 million.