WASDE Rice: Reduced U.S. Exports, Higher Stocks

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The outlook for 2018/19 U.S. rice this month is for reduced exports, unchanged domestic and residual use, and higher ending stocks. All rice exports are lowered 4.0 million cwt to 94.0 million.

Long-grain exports are reduced by 1.0 million cwt to 67.0 million on lower-than-expected milled exports. Medium- and short-grain exports are decreased by 3.0 million cwt to 27.0 million on a slow sales pace to several export markets.

Total domestic and residual use is unchanged at 135.0 million cwt. Long-grain use is raised 1 million cwt but this increase is completely offset by an equivalent reduction in medium- and short-grain. These revisions are based on the latest NASS Rice Stocks report.

Projected all rice ending stocks are raised 4 million cwt to 53.6 million. This is 82 percent higher than last year and would be the first time stocks have reached 50 million cwt since 1986/87.

The projected 2018/19 all rice season-average farm price is reduced by $0.10 per cwt at the midpoint to $12.10 with the range narrowed to $11.80 to $12.40. All of the reduction is due to a decrease in the projected California medium- and short-grain price.

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Global 2018/19 rice supplies are decreased by 0.4 million tons to 663.8 million with lower carryin stocks and production. Global production is down as reductions for Indonesia, Pakistan, and the Philippines are not completely offset by higher production for Sri Lanka.

World 2018/19 consumption is raised 0.4 million tons to 492.4 million on higher expected use in Pakistan and Sri Lanka more than offsetting reduced use in Laos and Mexico. Global 2018/19 trade is lowered marginally to 47.3 million tons as reduced exports by Pakistan, the EU, and the United States are not completely offset by higher exports from Cambodia, Peru, and Uruguay.

Projected world ending stocks are adjusted lower this month to 171.4 million tons but remain record large.

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