WASDE Oilseeds: Reduced U.S. Soybean Imports, Ending Stocks

U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2018/19 include lower imports, higher seed use, and lower ending stocks. Soybean imports are reduced in line with reported trade through January while lower seed use reflects plantings indicated in the March 29 Prospective Plantings report.

With soybean crush and exports unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 895 million bushels, down 5 million. Soybean oil changes include increased imports and domestic disappearance for biodiesel and for food use, and lower ending stocks.

The season-average soybean price is forecast at $8.35 to $8.85, unchanged at the midpoint. Soybean oil price is projected at 28.0 to 30.0 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are projected at $305 to $325 per short ton, unchanged at the midpoint.

The 2018/19 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include increased production, lower exports, and increased stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed production is raised 2.0 million tons to 595.0 million mainly on higher soybean production for Brazil and rapeseed production for India.

Production for Brazil is increased 0.5 million tons to 117.0 million, reflecting favorable weather in Rio Grande do Sul where the crop is in pod-filling and maturation stages. Brazil’s 2017/18 soybean crop is also revised higher, supported by recent industry estimates.

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Rapeseed production for India is raised 1.4 million tons to 8 million on information from India’s Solvent Extractors’ Association.

Global oilseed exports are reduced 1.0 million tons to 177.1 million mainly on lower rapeseed trade between Canada and China. With lower rapeseed crush for China, imports are increased for other products, including sunflowerseed meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, and soybean oil.

Global oilseed ending stocks are raised 1.5 million tons to 123.2 million, largely due to higher soybean stocks for Brazil and rapeseed stocks for Canada.

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