WASDE Coarse Grains: Lower U.S. Corn Usage, Increased Ending Stocks

This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for lower feed and residual use, reductions in corn used for ethanol and exports, and larger stocks. Feed and residual use is lowered 75 million bushels to 5.300 billion based on corn stocks reported as of March 1, which indicated disappearance during the December-February quarter declined about 9 percent relative to a year ago.

Corn used to produce ethanol is lowered 50 million bushels to 5.500 billion based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report, and the pace of weekly ethanol production during March as indicated by Energy Information Administration data.

Exports are reduced 75 million bushels to 2.300 billion, reflecting current outstanding sales and expectations of increased competition from Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine. With supply unchanged and use declining, ending stocks are raised 200 million bushels to 2.035 billion.

The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at a midpoint of $3.55 per bushel.

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The global coarse grain production forecast for 2018/19 is up 5.3 million tons to 1,377.2 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, increased trade, greater use, and marginally higher stocks relative to last month.

Brazil corn production is raised, reflecting improved yield prospects for second-crop corn. Argentina corn is higher based on expectations of larger area. Corn production is raised for the EU, Mexico, and Indonesia, with reductions for the Philippines and Pakistan.

Major global trade changes for 2018/19 include higher projected corn exports for Brazil, Argentina, the EU, and Ukraine with a partially offsetting reduction for the United States. Corn imports are raised for the EU and South Africa, with lower projections for Vietnam and Bangladesh.

Foreign corn ending stocks for 2018/19 are raised from last month, mostly reflecting increases for Mexico, Indonesia and South Africa that more than offset declines for Vietnam, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Argentina.

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