Midday grain trade is mostly lower in quiet action.
Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with trade pulling back from the May-nearby $3.80 area that we have tested the last three sessions. The market is starting to move into pre-report squaring trade with the big annual March Planting Intentions report on Friday along with the March 1 stocks.
The average trade guess is for the 2019 planting intentions to be at 91.184 million acres versus 89.129 last year; the range of expectations is 90-92.2 million. The March 1 corn stocks are expected to be at 8.336 billion bushels versus 8.892 one year ago.
The Midwest weather issues are hindering demand and movement with short term moisture issues to continue with a few wet spring outlooks for the corn belt. South America crop progress should remain uneventful for now.
Ethanol margins have improved with production losses due to flooding, and the start of spring-driving season with ethanol futures edging slightly lower to start the week with tomorrow’s weekly report expected to reflect production losses.
Corn basis will be mixed depending greatly on local conditions. The slow start to fieldwork will continue to be watched in the near term with fertilizer logistics likely to be a major issue with water moving into the Mississippi. Trade will be watched for further China announcements are made with nothing the last two days.
On the May chart support is the 20-day at $3.71 1/2 with resistance at the 100-day at $3.83 3/8 then the 200-day at $3.85.
Soybean trade is 4 to 6 cents lower at midday with range-bound action continuing within the same dime we’ve traded the last week with little fresh news. Meal is $2 to $3 lower and oil is flat to 10 points lower.
Grain News on AgFax
The soybean 2019 planting intentions are expected to be at 86.2 million acres down from 89.196 a year ago. The March 1 stocks are expected to be a record 2.687 billion bushels versus 2.109 one year ago.
South America weather should maintain the recent pattern in the coming days with Brazil harvest moving along and normal progress in Argentina with the peak of harvest approaching, and SA beans at a solid discount to US origin seasonally. Crush margins remain strong to support domestic usage, with basis mostly flat.
On the May chart support is the $9.05 10-day and 20-day which we are just below at midday with the $8.99 level as the next level of support, then the 50-day and 100-day at $9.17 the next round up if we can find late buying.
Wheat trade is 1 cents lower to 4 cents higher with Chicago wheat trade leading again during the day session. Looking to Friday, the trade is looking for spring wheat acreage to be at 13.369 million acres versus 13.2 one year ago; the range of expectations is 12.6 to 13.9 million acres. The March 1 wheat stocks are expected to be at 1.543 billion bushels versus 1.495 billion one year ago.
In the bigger picture the trade appears to still be focused on easing the oversold conditions with the large fund short in place. The outlook for spring wheat planting will remain challenging. Export news has been quieter lately with most of the focus on high protein wheat and trade focused on the Egyptian tender today.
Warm plains weather will pull the crop out of dormancy with generally good conditions so far, and plenty of moisture and more on tap this week along with warmer weather before another cold snap. Wheat basis varies widely on product and location.
On the May Kansas City chart support is the 10-day at $4.42 with the 20-day at $4.40 below that, with the upper Bollinger band the next round up at $4.56.
The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 230 points higher. The interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 8 points higher. Energies are firmer, with crude 1.00 higher moving above $60 a barrel. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold off 8.00.