May corn ended 2 cents higher Friday and pocketed a whole nickel on the week with slight help from flooding concerns and an 11.8 million bushel purchase from China on Friday. Friday’s losses in soybeans put them modestly lower on the week and winter wheat finished with small losses on Friday, but posted small gains for the week.
Midday: Mixed trade at midday as early strength fades.
Corn trade is flat to 2 cents higher at midday with trade working into the next level of resistance overnight before fading on the day session. Midwest weather issues are hindering demand and movement, which will continue for a bit with a wet start to April expected for much of the belt. South America crop progress should remain uneventful for now.
Ethanol margins have improved this week, but remain tight with the rally in the energy complex slowing its rally, but ethanol futures remain slightly higher this a.m.
Corn basis will be mixed depending greatly on local conditions. The slow start to fieldwork will continue to be watched in the near term with fertilizer logistics likely to be a major issue. The USDA announced 300,000 metric tons of Corn sold to China.
On the May chart support is the 20-day at $3.71 5/8, with the 50-day at $3.79 5/8 as resistance, which we are tested before fading.
Soybean trade is 5 to 6 cents lower with trade remaining firmly range bound between $9.00 and $9.10 and two-sided trade continuing. Meal is flat to $1.00 lower, and oil is 30 to 40 points lower.
Trade news has been quieter this week with no major reports. South America weather should maintain the recent pattern in the coming days with Brazil harvest moving along and normal progress in Argentina.
Crush margins remain strong overall with meal still hanging near $310 a ton with support coming back into the market at midweek. Forward demand remains a concern with the hog losses to swine fever.
On the May chart support is the $9.01 3/8 10-day moving average, with the 20-day at $9.07 the next level up, which we failed to hold this morning, with the 100-day at $9.17 the next round up.
Wheat trade is flat to 3 cents higher with trade working slightly higher after the stronger midweek action and profit taking heading towards the weekend. Trade is still focused on easing oversold conditions with the large fund short remaining in place with planting season coming up for spring wheat, and weather likely to remain challenging.
Export news has been quieter lately with most of the focus on high-protein wheat. Warm plains weather will pull the crop out of dormancy with generally good conditions so far. Wheat basis varies widely on product and location.
On the May Kansas City chart support is the 20-day at $4.40 that we closed above midweek with the 10-day at $4.39 below that, with the upper Bollinger Band the next round up at $4.55.