May contracts of both, Chicago and K.C. wheat closed up 8 1/4 cents Wednesday after dovish comments from the Federal Reserve sent the June U.S. dollar lower. Corn and soybeans saw lesser benefit and finished with small gains.
Midday: Wheat leads at midday, with row crops narrowly mixed.
Corn trade is flat to a penny lower at midday with trade still just below the next level of resistance in quiet action with two-sided trade ongoing. Midwest weather issues are hindering demand and movement, which will continue for a bit with a wet start to April expected.
South America crop progress should remain uneventful in the near term with Brazil trending drier for double-crop corn but it remains early.
Weekly ethanol production was 1,000 barrels lower on the week with stocks 634,000 higher, with the bigger slowdown not likely to show up until next week’s report. Ethanol futures are slightly higher. Corn basis will be mixed depending greatly on local conditions. The slow start to fieldwork will continue to be watched in the near term.
On the May chart support is the 10-day at $3.68 which we bounced from this morning, with the next level of resistance the 20-day at $3.72 3/8, which we are just below.
Soybean trade is 1 to 2 cents higher with trade still working to hold the $9.00 area with another test of the area this morning before finding buying. Meal is flat to $1.00 higher and oil is 5 to 15 points higher. Trade news has been quieter this week with no major reports.
South America weather should maintain the recent pattern in the coming days with Brazil harvest moving along and normal progress in Argentina. Crush margins remain strong overall with meal still hanging near $310 a ton with support coming back into the market.
On the May chart support is the $9.00 5/8 10-day moving average, with the 20-day at $9.08 3/8 the next level up, which we remained just below.
Wheat trade is 3 to 6 cents higher at midday with Kansas City trade leading after it was reported that Brazil will allow in 750,000 metric tons of U.S. wheat tariff free. Trade is still focused on easing oversold conditions with the large fund short remaining in place with planting season coming up for spring wheat, and weather likely to remain challenging.
Export news will be focused on in the near term with exports potentially slowing from the Black Sea area. Warm plains weather will pull the crop out of dormancy with generally good conditions so far. Wheat basis varies widely on product and location.
On the May Kansas City chart, support is the 10-day at $4.35 which we remain just above, with the 20-day at 4.42 which we tested before falling back.