WASDE Rice: Higher Domestic Imports, Reduced Exports

This month’s outlook for 2018/19 U.S. rice is for higher imports, lower exports, and increased ending stocks. All the supply and demand changes are for medium- and short-grain rice. Total rice imports are raised 0.5 million cwt to record 29.0 million on increased China shipments to Puerto Rico.

All U.S. rice exports are down 2 million cwt to 98 million on a slow shipment pace to date of medium- and short-grain rice. Even with this reduction, 2018/19 rice exports are forecast to increase 11 million cwt from the previous year as U.S. rice is expected to be more competitive. Rice ending stocks are raised 2.5 million cwt to 49.6 million, the largest in more than 30 years.

The all rice season-average farm price is raised $0.10 per cwt at the midpoint to a range of $11.70 to $12.70 per cwt. The entire change is due to increased long-grain prices.

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Global 2018/19 rice supplies are raised 6.3 million tons to 664.2 million, mostly on a large increase for India production. India’s rice crop is raised 5.0 million tons to a record 116.0 million due to favorable summer rainfall and updated government data. Bangladesh production is raised 0.5 million tons to 35.0 million also on favorable weather and increased harvested area.

Global exports are reduced 0.4 million tons to 47.4 million but still remain record large. Global consumption is raised 1.7 million tons to 492.0 million, led by a 1.1 million ton increase for India.

With world supplies rising more than total use, global ending stocks are raised 4.6 million tons to 172.2 million to a new record.

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