WASDE Oilseeds: Higher Domestic Soybean Crush, Reduced Stocks

U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2018/19 include higher crush and lower ending stocks compared with last month’s report. Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 2,100 million on higher domestic disappearance of soybean meal and a lower soybean meal extraction rate reflecting data reported by NASS in the Oilseed Crushings report. With exports unchanged, soybean stocks are projected at 900 million bushels, down 10 million from last month.

With increased crush, soybean oil production is raised 115 million pounds to 24.6 billion. Soybean oil used for methyl ester production for biodiesel is raised 200 million pounds to 8.2 billion on record production for the first quarter of the marketing year (Oct-Sept). With increased production more than offset by higher use, soybean oil stocks are forecast lower.

The season-average soybean price range forecast of $8.10 to $9.10 per bushel is unchanged at the midpoint.

Soybean oil and meal prices are also unchanged at 28.5 to 31.5 cents per pound and $295 to $335 per short ton, respectively. The 2018/19 global oilseed outlook includes lower production, crush, and increased stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed production is down 0.2 million tons, with lower soybean production more than offsetting higher rapeseed and cottonseed.

Soybean production is reduced 0.9 million tons to 360.1 million on lower production for Brazil and Paraguay. Production for Brazil is down 0.5 million tons to 116.5 million, reflecting dry weather conditions and lower yields for Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goias.

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Global oilseed crush is down 0.5 million tons mainly on lower soybean crush for China, which is down on slower-than-expected pace to date. China’s soybean crush pace is expected to increase during the second half of the marketing year as the South American harvest advances and leads to increased global supplies.

Global oilseed ending stocks are up 0.8 million tons to 121.7 million, with soybeans accounting for 0.5 million of the increase.

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