Friday began with new USDA estimates for the 2019-20 season, followed by six weeks of export sales data wrapped up in one report. By the end of the day, most grain prices showed little change, except for March Minneapolis wheat, the clear winner in the grain sector with a gain of 9 cents.
Midday: Row crops move sideways, with spring wheat the midday leader.
Corn trade flat to 1 cent higher at midday in light two-sided action so far. A 92-million-acre figure, up 3.35% year over year, as the USDA Outlook estimate for 2019 US Acreage with a new crop carryout of 1.65 billion bushels has added some light support this morning.
South America progress will remain on track for corn in the near term. The energy complex remains near the upper end of the range, with ethanol futures reaching $1.36 with seasonal support starting to develop more.
Corn basis should firm again with more weather disruptions with aggressive bids by some end-users with more focus on exporters with trade. The export sales for the last six weeks were 6.06 million metric tons, towards the upper end of the range of expectations.
On the March chart trade has support at the recent $3.68 1/2 low, the lower Bollinger Band at $3.70 7/8, with more notable chart resistance clustered at $3.76-$3.78 which we have been tested but failed to move through the last two days.
Soybean trade is narrowly mixed with trade holding support but not able to extend further from the reversal earlier in the week. Meal is flat to $1.00 lower and oil is flat to 10 points lower. The USDA Outlook forum noted a 85 million acre number for 2019 planted acreage, down 4.7% from 2018 with carryout at 845 million.
South America weather should maintain the recent pattern in the coming days with Brazil harvest moving along and drier weather in Argentina with pod fill on going. Crush margins remain strong.
Trade talks will continue in the U.S. this week with some progress scored this week according to most sources and the March 1 deadline looming, although there is more talk of an extension with apparent good progress this week along with further Chinese purchase commitments over a broad array of ag products expected to be confirmed today.
Export sales were 6.531 million metric tons of soybeans, 1.468 million of meal, and 92,100 of oil.
On the March chart resistance is now the moving averages clustered at $9.09-9.14 which we testing this morning again, with support at the lows from Wednesday at $8.93 with oversold conditions in place.
Wheat trade is 1 to 11 cents higher with Minneapolis trade leading again, with the winter wheats still struggling to maintain momentum. US export business will remain in focus with the delayed export sales at 3.457 million metric tons, with most business done well above current market levels. The dollar has remained flat after Fed guidance.
The outlook forum had 47 million acres of wheat with a 944 million bushel carryout. Cold weather is expected to keep some stress on the plains in the near term with winter wanting to hang around.
On the March Kansas City chart, support is low at $4.49 1/4 with resistance the 10-day at $4.75, with trade easing oversold conditions.