DTN Cotton Close: Sharply Higher on Trade Hopes

Photo by Larry Stalcup

The cotton market finished sharply higher Thursday on bullish comments from President Trump late Wednesday. To reiterate, Mr. Trump has indicated the U.S./China trade talks were going well, and that American Agriculture would be a big beneficiary. Of course, such as been a common theme for many weeks, and no deal has been struck. Right now, the talks are operating under a March 1 deadline. Yet, even that deadline is pliable, as Mr. Trump has said he is willing to move it out farther.

Technically, the market was primed for a rally. Ever since it topped in June of 2018, it has been in a steep decline, posting low-after-low for nearly 27-cents. Such bearish action obviously created a severe oversold condition. Thus, speculators may be changing sides down in here from bearish to bullish. Also, the market may be feeling the bullish tug of its historical seasonal as well. That phenomenon says prices tend to ascend into spring planting.

Friday, the market will receive additional news in the form of a massive summary export-sales report. Due to the government shutdown, certain marketing data was delayed, but come Friday it will all be released. Supposedly, Friday will end this round of the U.S./China trade talks and the market will be anticipating some sort of press release. Additionally, March deliveries, if any, will be known and USDA’s annual agricultural forum will conclude with its crop projections as well.

May cotton settled 74.01 cents, up 1.85 cents, July was at 74.99 cents, up 1.65 cents and December ended at 73.94 cents, up 0.85 cent. Thursday’s estimated volume was 48,400 contracts traded.

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