Global production for 2018/19 is forecast to gain 165,000 metric tons (tons) from the previous year to 814,000 on rebounding yields and output in the United States and Turkey, more than offsetting a sharp decline in Iran. With higher available supplies, world consumption is expected to reach a record 743,000 tons. However, global exports are expected to drop nearly 50,000 tons to 327,000 due to lower available supplies in Iran.
Iran’s production is forecast to plunge 173,000 tons to just 52,000. The Iranian Pistachio Association reported that a weather shock occurred during bud-break in Kerman province, significantly reducing yields in this top-producing region. Exports are expected to plummet 105,000 tons to just 50,000 on significantly lower shipments to China, the European Union, and Turkey.
U.S. production jumped 179,000 tons to a record 451,000 due to high yields from the on-year of the alternate bearing crop cycle as well as increased bearing area. Please note this forecast is based on shipment report data from the Administrative Committee for Pistachios. Prior years are based on data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) as reported in the Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts report. With limited competition from Iran, U.S. exports are expected to gain 35,000 tons to a record 250,000 on higher shipments to China, the European Union, and Canada.
Turkey’s production is forecast to skyrocket 160,000 tons to a record 240,000. Last year’s crop was particularly small as poor weather coincided with the production cycle’s off-year. However, most production is not traded, so domestic consumption is expected to double.
China’s imports are forecast to ease 12,000 tons to 100,000 on limited shipments from Iran. Despite high retaliatory tariffs for U.S. pistachios, imports from the United States are expected slightly higher.