Projected 2018/19 wheat ending stocks are raised 36 million bushels on reduced feed and residual use and lower seed use. Feed and residual use is lowered 30 million bushels on larger than expected second-quarter stocks reported in today’s NASS Grain Stocks report. Seed use is down 6 million bushels reflecting 2019/20 winter wheat planted area released today in the NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report.
Winter wheat planted area is lower than expected on excessive precipitation and cool temperatures during the planting window. Ending stocks are now projected at 1,010 million bushels. The season-average farm price is unchanged based on NASS prices reported to date and price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.
World production for the 2018/19 market year is raised 1.3 million tons, led by a 1.6-million-ton increase for Russia, a 0.6-million-ton increase for Brazil, and a 0.5-million-ton increase for Paraguay. These changes are partly offset by a 1.1 million ton decrease for China and a 0.3-million-ton decrease for Argentina.
All these production changes reflect updated government statistics and harvest results. Global exports are raised 1.3 million tons led by a 0.7-million-ton increase for Pakistan on reports of new export subsidies. Russian exports are raised 0.5 million tons and Paraguay is raised 0.4 million tons, both on larger exportable supplies.
In contrast, Australia’s exports are lowered 0.5 million tons on a slow pace to date, and Argentina exports are down 0.2 million tons reflecting the smaller crop. Global use for 2018/19 is raised 2.0 million tons, primarily on a 2.0-million-ton increase in China feed and residual use.
With global use rising more than supplies, world ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 267.5 million.