This month’s outlook for 2018/19 U.S. rice is for larger supplies, higher use, and increased ending stocks. 2018/19 all rice production is 224.2 million cwt, up nearly 6 million cwt from the previous estimate and up 26 percent from last year with long-grain accounting for most of the increase. The all rice average yield is estimated at 7,692 pounds per acre, up 170 pounds from the prior estimate and the second highest on record. Long-grain production is raised to 164.0 million cwt and medium- and short-grain production is raised to 60.3 million.
All rice domestic and residual usage is increased by 2.0 million cwt to 135.0 million on higher-than-expected usage for August-November as implied by the NASS Rice Stocks report. Projected U.S. all rice exports are increased by 1.0 million cwt to 100.0 million, with the increase for long-grain on reduced competition expected from Brazil with a smaller crop. Projected 2018/19 all rice ending stocks are increased 2.9 million cwt to 47.1, up 60 percent from last year.
The projected 2018/19 all rice season-average farm price range is unchanged at $11.60 to $12.60 per cwt.
Global 2018/19 rice supplies are increased by 5.1 million tons to 657.9 million, mostly on higher production for China. Based on National Bureau of Statistics data, China’s 2018/19 rice production is raised nearly 5 million tons to 148.5 million and is virtually unchanged from last year. World 2018/19 consumption is increased 0.7 million tons to 490.3 million on higher expected use in China, Nepal, and the Philippines more than offsetting reduced use in Brazil and Nigeria.
Global 2018/19 trade is lowered marginally to 47.7 million tons as reduced exports by Cambodia, Thailand, and Burma are not completely offset by higher Chinese exports. Because of greater supplies and competitive export prices, China’s exports are raised to the highest level since 2002/03. Nevertheless, China remains the largest global rice importer at 4.5 million tons.
World ending stocks are projected to increase to a record-large 167.6 million tons, led by China, which accounts for 69 percent of global stocks.