Virginia Cotton: What Can We Expect This Season?

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I think it will always be human nature to want to predict the future.  Or at least, to know somebody who can and then will tell me what is going to happen.  I guess everybody predicted Brady would win the super bowl so that proves we can… right?  Plus, the Farmer’s Almanac is a thing and has been around forever so they must know what is going to happen. 

I know you can google it but I already did so I’ll save you some time and just tell you that it is going to be a warm this spring, slightly below normal temperatures in the summer and then a dry warm fall.  (What I heard them say was no hardlock this year.)  According to the Almanac, we are in the transition zone for May on rainfall which will be normal to the north and much wetter to the south.  I guess we will be just right.

Well I also asked google what the cotton markets were going to do, and was told it could go back to 80 or drop below 70 or even both could happen.  Well I asked Alexa and she said she does not know that one.  There was an article that said corn was developing a bullish pattern and hopefully that means all the commodities will move try to buy acreage this spring and it will all be good.

We are still in that lull period that typically is pretty unexciting but sometimes nervous when you are holding unpriced cotton.  Even though there is a seasonal pattern that gets talked about for higher prices moving into the planting season, there is no guarantee.  It was only 3 years ago in February 2016 when the harvest prices held above 60 cents and then cotton dropped to 58 cents for about a week before recovering back to the 70’s by the end of the planting season.  With this tariff thing, we could see anything happen any day.

For me, I would be encouraged if cotton stays in a lull this winter, particularly if corn prices rally.  IF cotton ends up with a nice spring rally, I would probably be pretty aggressive about pricing knowing it could be buying acreage, particularly if everything else stays down.  Hopefully, everything will move up together.  Then nobody will know which direction it will head into the summer, even Google.


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