Wheat has been the upside leader of late and Wednesday’s higher finish is the fifth consecutive day in the plus column. Soybeans, which have been up and down, finished with solid gains. Corn finished little changed in two-sided trade.
Midday: Soybeans are the leader at midday up a nickel, with corn and wheat struggling to hold gains.
Corn trade is narrowly mixed at midday with early gains fading yet again. The South American recent weather pattern remains intact with a mix of excessive rain and pockets of dryness with some potential improvement down the road.
Ethanol margins remain poor with futures still near the lows with significant blender margin improvement likely waiting until spring with futures improving slightly and the weekly report delayed until Thursday. Winter weather will likely slow corn movement again, keeping basis flat to firmer. The government partial shutdown is expected to continue to limit news.
On the March chart support is the multiple moving averages at the $3.77-3.79 area, with resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $3.83 1/2.
Soybean trade is 2 to 4 cents higher at midday with trade remaining near the upper end of the range after bouncing back from the break lower on delayed trade negotiations yesterday but struggling holding the gains. Meal is flat to $1 higher, and oil is 15 to 25 points higher.
South America weather items remain in the recent weather pattern with harvest going early amid heat and pockets of dryness in Brazil with generally disappointing yields so far, and excessive rain potential in Argentina.
Basis has been pretty flat with the weather likely to add support. Forecasts are being monitored closely. Support is the $9.07 50-day moving average, and resistance the 200-day at 9.24.
Wheat trade is 1 to 3 cents higher at with more talk of Russian restrictions adding support to the market along with talk of China buying with trade trying to consolidate through the resistance levels cleared the last couple of trading days. Early gains have faded yet again. The dollar has bounced last week into this week, but remains in the lower part of the two-month range.
Southern Hemisphere harvest will continue in the near term. North American winter wheat should be ok moisture wise with cold snaps the biggest threat for now. Russia domestic prices will be watched closely with firmer values again there.
On the March Kansas City chart, support is the 50-day at $5.03 with resistance the upper Bollinger band at $5.13.