Back from a three-day weekend, U.S. stocks and most commodities were lower, facing the same concerns of slower world growth and lack of trade talk progress with China. March corn and soybeans were lower while the three wheats were mixed.
Midday: Wheat is the leader at midday up a nickel, with row crops struggling in slow trade at midday.
Corn trade is 2 cents lower in quiet trade at midday as we return from the holiday on Monday with rangebound trade looking to continue to start the week. The South American recent weather pattern remains intact with a mix of excessive rain and pockets of dryness with some potential improvement down the road.
Ethanol margins remain poor with futures still near the lows with significant blender margin improvement likely waiting until spring with futures fading again this morning. Winter weather will likely slow corn movement again, keeping basis flat to firmer.
The government partial shutdown is expected to continue to limit news. Weekly export inspections were good at 1.08 million metric tons.
On the March chart, support is the multiple moving averages at the $3.77-3.79 area, with resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $3.83 7/8.
Soybean trade is mixed with light two sided trade to open the week. Meal is flat to $1 lower, and oil was 5 to 15 points lower.
South America weather items remain in the recent weather pattern with harvest going early amid heat and pockets of dryness in Brazil with generally disappointing yields so far, and excessive rain potential in Argentina.
Basis has been pretty flat with the weather likely to add support. Weekly export inspections were good at 1.1 million metric tons. Forecasts are being monitored closely.
Support is the $9.07 50-day moving average, and resistance the 200-day at 9.25.
Wheat trade is 1 to 5 cents higher at with more talk of Russian restrictions adding support to the market with trade looking to challenge the next levels of resistance, with trade backing a little off the upper end of the range. The dollar has bounced last week into this week, but remains in the lower part our two-month range.
Southern Hemisphere harvest will continue in the near term. North American winter wheat should be OK moisture wise with cold snaps the biggest threat for now. Russia domestic prices will be watched closely with firmer values again there.
On the March Kansas City chart, support is the 50-day at $5.04 with resistance the upper Bollinger band at $5.11.