March soybeans finished 9 cents higher Friday, helped by an unconfirmed rumor that China offered to commit to large U.S. ag purchases earlier this month, and by a return of investor buying interest to the stock market and outside commodity markets. March contracts of corn and all three wheats were steady to higher on light volume.
Midday: Soybeans lead at midday with trade optimism boosting ag markets again.
Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher in quiet trade at midday with market action looking to consolidate the late gains yesterday on improved trade optimism. The South American recent weather pattern remains intact with a mix of excessive rain and pockets of dryness with some potential improvement down the road.
Ethanol margins remain poor with futures still near the lows even with firmer action this morning, while blender margins have struggled to maintain gains for the time being. Winter weather will likely slow corn movement again, keeping basis flat to firmer. The government partial shutdown is expected to continue to limit news.
On the March chart support is the multiple moving averages at the $3.77-3.79 area, with resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $3.83 7/8.
Soybean trade is 9 to 12 cents higher with trade building on the reversal yesterday on increases trade optimism and South American weather with talk of China making substantially offers towards future purchases. Meal is 3.50 to 4.50 higher, and oil is 25 to 35 points higher.
South America weather items remain in the recent weather pattern with harvest going early amid heat and pockets of dryness in Brazil with generally disappointing yields so far, and excessive rain potential in Argentina.
Basis has been pretty flat with the weather likely to add support. Forecasts are being monitored closely. Support is the $9.06 50-day moving average, and resistance the 200-day at 9.25.
Wheat trade is 1 to 3 cents higher at midday with trade building on the reversal from yesterday on talk of China importing wheat. The dollar has bounced last week into this week, but remains in the lower part our two-month range.
Southern Hemisphere harvest will continue in the near term. North American winter wheat should see a cool down this week, with snow cover expected in front of the cold snap for most areas but will need to be watched with longer-term forecast warmer. Russia domestic prices will be watched closely with firmer values again there.
On the March Kansas City chart, support is the 50-day at $5.04 with resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $5.11.