March cotton settled Tuesday at 7236, down 63.
Just when one thinks the cotton market is seeking higher price levels, up pops Turnaround Tuesday. This long-time technical nuance suggests how the market closes on a Monday, often on Tuesday it trades opposite. Thus, with spot March cotton closing 50 points higher Monday, Tuesday’s trade will finish lower by nearly that same amount.
Adding to the markets malaise is the U.S. government shutdown and the wait for the second round of trade talks with China. As long as such uncertainties abound, the market is always prone to unexpected selling.
The market is technically straining to go higher. Although, cotton’s trend since Christmas has been one of congestion, its 100-day trend remains unduly bearish. Still, there has been a recent uptick in open interest, which suggests new buyers are willing to enter the trade. The reason for their participation is the general market may be focusing more upon its own specific fundamentals. Those particulars include a reduced U.S. 2018 crop and a smaller crop in India. Of course, until USDA comes back on line, that information eludes the market.
No question the major obstacle for the market is a trade agreement with China, or the lack thereof. Not much else matters if no deal can be achieved. To that end, given the many months of trade disruption and now many weeks of negotiations, . it would be unrealistic to think the U.S. cotton market would immediately return to its former and higher price levels.
March cotton settled Tuesday at 7236, down 63; July finished at 7489, down 90; and December closed at 7344, off 66. Tuesday’s estimated volume was 26,750.