The outlook for 2018/19 U.S. rice this month is for slightly higher supplies, higher exports, and reduced ending stocks. Total 2018/19 rice supplies are raised 0.5 million cwt to 276.2 million on higher medium- and short-grain imports. Exports are raised 3.0 million cwt (all medium- and short-grain milled rice) in response to the sharp reduction in Australia’s crop.
No changes are made this month to the long grain supply and demand estimates. Long-grain ending stocks remain at 32.4 million cwt, up nearly 60 percent from the previous year. Medium- and short-grain ending stocks are lowered 2.5 million cwt to 10.3 million.
The all rice marketing year average price is raised $0.10 per cwt at the midpoint to a range of $11.60 – 12.60. The long-grain price is unchanged but medium- and short-grain prices are raised $0.50 per cwt for California to a midpoint of $18.30 and $0.10 per cwt for other states to a midpoint of $12.20.
Global rice production for 2018/19 is raised 0.4 million tons to 491.1 million led by a 1.0-million-ton increase for Nigeria, which is based on updated government statistics for multiple years. The Nepal crop is raised 0.2 million tons. Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Thailand on limited water availability for the dry season crop and a 0.3-million-ton decrease for Australia on the severe drought in the Eastern part of the country.
Global exports are lowered 0.8 million tons with Thailand down 0.7 million tons and Australia down 0.2 million, both on the smaller crops. Imports for 2018/19 are lowered 0.6 million tons for Nigeria and 0.4 million tons for Indonesia. Total use is raised 1.2 million tons, led by increases for Nigeria and Thailand, and global ending stocks are raised fractionally to 163.3 million tons.