Total U.S. oilseed production for 2018/19 is forecast at 135.5 million tons, up slightly due to an increase for cottonseed. Soybean supply and use projections for 2018/19 are unchanged from last month. With soybean exports and crush unchanged, soybean ending stocks are projected at a record 955 million bushels.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2018/19 is forecast at $7.85 to $9.35 per bushel, unchanged at the midpoint. Soybean meal and oil price forecasts are also unchanged at $290 to $330 per short ton and 28.0 to 32.0 cents per pound, respectively.
Global 2018/19 oilseed production is forecast up 0.9 million tons to 600.5 million, with greater soybean production for Brazil and Nigeria. Brazil’s soybean production is projected up 1.5 million tons to 122.0 million, reflecting higher yields in the Center-West region where crops have benefitted from favorable weather conditions.
Higher global soybean production is partly offset by a 0.7-million-ton reduction to rapeseed, mainly due to lower area projections for Australia and India based on recent government data.
Global 2018/19 soybean exports are increased 0.7 million tons to 156.1 million. Soybean exports are increase 4 million tons for Brazil but are lowered for Argentina, Canada, and Paraguay. Larger competitive supplies in Brazil are expected to slow the export pace and increase the stocks held by other exporters, particularly Argentina.