This month’s 2018/19 U.S. cotton forecasts include slightly higher production and ending stocks. Production is raised 180,000 bales due mainly to a 300,000-bale increase in Texas. Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. Ending stocks, forecast at 4.4 million bales in 2018/19, are 100,000 bales above both last month and the 2017/18 estimate.
The forecast range for the marketing year average price received by producers is unchanged from November, 71 to 77 cents per pound, with a midpoint of 74 cents.
The global 2018/19 forecasts compared with last month include lower production, lower consumption, higher trade, and slightly higher ending stocks. Global production is 645,000 bales lower with smaller crops in Pakistan, China, India, Turkmenistan, and Turkey. These changes more than offset a 1.0-million-bale increase in Brazil and smaller increases in the United States and Cote d’Ivoire.
Global consumption is 1.3 million bales lower largely due to a 1.0-million-bale decline for China, but consumption is also lower in Pakistan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan. Global trade is 600,000 bales higher, with imports up in Pakistan, India, and Malaysia, while exports are higher from Brazil, Argentina, Cote d’Ivoire, India, and Uzbekistan.
Projected 2018/19 global ending stocks are nearly 600,000 bales higher this month, but at 73.2 million bales are down 7.3 million bales from the year before.