Supplies for the 2018/19 U.S. wheat crop are unchanged this month, and total use is raised 7 million bushels on higher seed use that reflects increased projected 2019/20 wheat planted area. Small offsetting by-class changes are made for wheat imports and exports. Food use is unchanged based on the latest NASS Flour Milling Products report, issued November 1.
Projected ending stocks are lowered 7 million bushels to 949 million. The season-average farm price is unchanged at the midpoint of $5.10 per bushel and the range is narrowed to $4.90 to $5.30.
Global 2018/19 wheat supplies are raised 6.7 million tons on both increased production and beginning stocks. The vast majority of this change stems from the updated production data released by China’s NBS, which made significant production changes from 2007/08 through 2017/18.
In addition, China’s 2018/19 production forecast is raised with both higher harvested area and yield, based on the NBS revisions.
Total 2018/19 global production is raised 2.6 million tons, but is down 1.9 million tons excluding the China revision. Australia’s crop is lowered 1.0 million tons to 17.5 million on continued drought. Morocco, Pakistan, and Ukraine are lowered 0.9, 0.8, and 0.5 million tons, respectively. A 0.9-million-ton production increase for Algeria is partly offsetting. Global exports are lowered 1.6 million tons with almost all of that from Australia reflecting the smaller crop.
Australia exports are lowered 1.5 million tons to 11.5 million, the lowest total since 2007/08. Global use is raised 0.2 million tons, but includes a 1.0-million-ton increase for China reflecting higher feed and residual use and larger supplies. With supplies rising more than use, global ending stocks are raised 6.5 million tons to 266.7 million. However, stocks outside of China are down 0.9 million tons.