WASDE Rice: Reduced U.S. Exports, Higher Stocks

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This month’s outlook for 2018/19 U.S. rice is for fractionally higher supplies, reduced exports, and higher ending stocks. The NASS November Crop Production report indicated 2018/19 rice production is lowered slightly from the previous forecast to 218.3 million cwt with California accounting for the entire reduction.

The average all rice yield is reduced 17 pounds to 7,522 pounds per acre. Despite lower production, supplies still increased as imports are forecast up 1.0 million cwt to a record of 28.0 million on higher medium- and short-grain imports into Puerto Rico.

The all rice export forecast is lowered 2.0 million cwt to 96.0 million with all of the reduction in long-grain on continued strong competition in Western Hemisphere markets from South American suppliers. All rice ending stocks are increased 2.5 million cwt to 46.7 million and are 59 percent higher than 2017/18.

The projected 2018/19 all rice season-average farm price (SAFP) is raised this month $0.30 per cwt at the midpoint to a range of $11.50 to $12.50, as a higher projected medium- and short-grain SAFP more than offsets a lower long-grain SAFP.

Global 2018/19 rice supplies are increased by 17.7 million tons to 651.4 million, mostly due to revisions for China. USDA incorporated China’s NBS rice production revisions from 2007/08 through 2017/18, which consequently raised its supplies over this multi-year period. The cumulative increases in China’s ending stocks result in the large upward adjustment in 2018/19 global supplies.

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Additionally, China’s 2018/19 production forecast is raised on larger harvested area, reflecting the NBS revisions for prior years. Global consumption is fractionally lower at 488.4 million tons as reductions in Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and Pakistan are not completely offset by increases in other countries. World trade is lowered 0.6 million tons to 48.9 million on reduced exports for India, Argentina, and the United States.

Global ending stocks are raised 17.8 million tons to a record 163.0 million with China now accounting for 69 percent of 2018/19 world stocks, compared to 66 percent last month.

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