WASDE Oil Crops: Reduced Domestic Soybean Production, Exports, Higher Stocks

The U.S. soybean outlook is for lower production, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 4,600 million bushels, down 90 million on lower yields. The soybean yield is projected at 52.1 bushels per acre, down 1.0 bushel mainly on reductions for Iowa and Illinois. Soybean exports are reduced 160 million bushels to 1,900 million with lower imports projected for China.

The forecast protein consumption growth rate for China is reduced, which is reflected in the limited number of U.S. export sales this fall. Although sales to China are minimal, strong sales to other markets are expected to continue, which is likely to result in a larger share of U.S. exports in the second half of the marketing year. With lower exports and slightly higher crush, soybean ending stocks are projected at 955 million bushels, up 70 million.

The U.S. season-average soybean price range is forecast at $7.60 to $9.60 per bushel, unchanged at the midpoint. Soybean meal and soybean oil price forecasts are also unchanged at $290 to $330 per short ton and 28.0 to 32.0 cents per pound, respectively.

The 2018/19 global oilseed outlook includes lower production, exports, and increased stocks compared to last month. Lower production of soybeans, cottonseed, peanuts, and rapeseed is partly offset with a higher forecast for sunflowerseed. Reduced global peanut and rapeseed production is largely driven by historical revisions issued by China’s NBS. Global soybean production is reduced 2.0 million tons with lower production for the United States and Argentina partly offset by increases for China, India, and Ukraine.

Global soybean exports are reduced 2.0 million tons to 155.4 million. Lower U.S. exports are partly offset by a 2-million-ton increase for Brazil and higher shipments out of Ukraine and Russia. 

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With limited U.S. commitments to China so far this marketing year, China’s soybean imports are lowered 4 million tons to 90 million. China’s crush is also lowered, but protein meal consumption growth is expected to remain positive with support from available foreign exportable supplies. South America is expected to capture more of China’s soybean market while the United States is likely to capture more market share in the rest of the world, particularly in the second half of the marketing year when those imports typically trend higher.

Global oilseed stocks are up 2.4 million tons to 126.2 million mainly on higher stocks of soybeans and sunflowerseed. Global soybean stocks are up 2.0 million tons to 112.1 million, with higher stocks in Argentina, India, and the United States that are partly offset by lower stocks in China and Brazil

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