This month’s 2018/19 U.S. balance sheet shows lower production, consumption, exports, and ending stocks. Production is reduced 1.35 million bales due mainly to decreases in the Southeast, reflecting the impact of adverse weather. Domestic mill use is reduced 100,000 bales and exports are reduced 500,000 bales. Projected ending stocks in 2018/19 are 700,000 bales lower this month, at 4.3 million bales or 24 percent of use.
The marketing-year-average price received by producers is forecast between 71.0 and 77.0 cents per pound, with a midpoint of 74.0 cents, 1 cent above last month.
This month’s 2018/19 world supply and demand forecasts include lower beginning stocks, production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Historical revisions to Benin’s exports resulted in a 375,000-bale decrease in 2018/19 beginning stocks there, accounting for much of this month’s 500,000-bale decline in global beginning stocks.
Forecast global production is reduced 2.3 million bales as smaller expected crops in the United States, India, Pakistan, and Turkmenistan offset an increase in Benin. Consumption is reduced 875,000 bales, with smaller expected mill use in India, Pakistan, Turkey, Brazil, Indonesia, and the United States.
Global ending stocks are 1.8 million bales lower this month, at 73 million bales or 57 percent of mill use.