December corn and November soybeans held small gains at the close, even though harvest weather still looks beneficial this week. All three wheats finished lower, pressured by more bearish export news and a rising U.S. dollar.
Midday: Mixed action at midday with corn the leader.
Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with trade seeing light buying to open the week. The harvest pace should begin to build again the next few days with the more open weather expected to persist into late October, although some forecasts have started to drift wetter towards the end of the month. Ethanol margins remain tight with futures mired below $1.29 a gallon.
Corn basis should start to see renewed pressure with better harvest pace. The weekly export inspections were slightly softer at 949,148 metric tons with weekly crop progress expected to show harvest moving past 50%.
On the December chart support is at the 20-day at $3.67 3/4 which is were we are just above at midday with the 50-day at $3.64 just below that, with the 10-day just above the market at $3.70 nearby resistance then the $3.78 1/2 recent high.
Soybean trade is flat to 2 cents higher at midday in quiet action to start the week with trade trying to find footing amid the wider harvest pressure this week. Meal is flat to $1 lower and oil is 5 to 15 points higher.
Soybean basis will likely see pressure with harvest continuing to expand. Quality concerns remain at the forefront as well, which will take a while to sort out. Crush margins remain strong in the near term.
South America should continue to see fairly normal early season progress in the near term with good moisture with the biggest concerns in Argentina. Weekly export inspections showed some improvement at 1.148 million metric tons, but remain below the usual seasonal pace. The weekly crop progress should move us past 50% harvested as well.
On the November chart support is the 50-day at $8.55 with the 20-day at $8.63 above that.
Wheat trade is 2 to 8 cents lower to start the week with range bound action continuing with some short covering likely later today with the retest of the lower end of the recent range and oversold conditions. The U.S. dollar has jumped back above 95.7 with more flight-to-safety trade on the outside market concerns.
Winter wheat planting is ongoing with better conditions in North America than Europe with plenty of moisture on the Plains, along with mixed Black Sea area conditions. Australia remains in the recent weather pattern with harvest coming soon. MATIF milling wheat is mixed this morning.
Planting progress should remain near average, along with emergence, with conditions overall good if issued today. The weekly export inspections remained with the recent range at 385,047 metric tons.
On the December Kansas City chart, we are below at the 10-day and 20-day at 5.21 with the lower Bollinger Band support at 5.07.