After sagging lower earlier in the week, corn, soybeans and all three wheats finished higher Friday with concerns about row crops stranded in soggy fields and more rain on the way to interrupt winter wheat planting. In outside markets, the stock market is struggling to trade higher after a steep two-day descent.
Midday: Trade is firmer across the board at midday.
Corn trade is 2 to 4 cents higher, holding gains from Thursday, with more spillover support from row crops so far. Cold weather is expected to persist with the heaviest rain potential passed in most areas. Ethanol futures have edged back above 1.30 at midday. Weekly export sales were solid at 1.01 million metric tons.
Corn basis is expected to stay sideways with wet weather limiting weakness in some areas. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was supportive vs. expectations with yield falling slightly to 180.7 bushels per acre, a bushel below expectations, with production falling slightly to 14.778 billion bushels. Ending stocks were estimated at 1.813 billion bushels, which was 100 million bushels below expectations.
On the December chart, support is at the $3.67 50-day with resistance at our recent high of $3.73. The 100-day is above it at $3.73 3/4.
Soybean trade is 7 to 10 cents higher with trade working to extend post-report gains. Ongoing quality concerns after the storms are battling it out with continued slow demand. Meal is narrowly mixed, and oil is 35 to 45 points higher.
Soybean basis has found some footing with the delays, although it remains abnormally wide with more focus on quality losses. Aggressive discounts are seen along the river system. Crush margins remain strong. Weekly export sales were poor for soybeans at 439,700, but good for meal and oil at 348,500 and 12,100.
Early planting in South America is underway with the recent weather pattern remaining intact. The WASDE report showed yield slightly higher at 53.1 bpa with 600,000 fewer acres. Production was estimated at 4.690 billion, down slightly from last month, with carryout rising 40 million to 885 million. World stocks rose slightly to 110 million.
On the November chart, support is the 10-day at $8.62 with resistance the recent high at $8.76.
Wheat trade is 2 to 9 cents higher with early gains yet again with trade looking to see if they can be sustained for once. The U.S. dollar has faded back below 95 with some light buying today. World spring wheat harvest is nearing completion, while winter wheat planting is ongoing with better conditions in North America than Europe. Australia remains in the recent weather pattern.
Weekly export sales remain sluggish at 339,700 metric tons with trade still focused on Russia’s aggressive program. The WASDE report had wheat carryout at 956 million, slightly above the average guess, and world stocks at 261.2 million metric tons, just below the average guess.
On the December KC chart, we are just above at the 10-day and 20-day at $5.18 with the lower Bollinger Band support at $5.09, and resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $5.30.