DTN Cotton Open: Market Climbs on Damage Reports

December cotton is up nearly 200 points and climbing as the initial toll of Michael’s devastation is just being realized. In the extreme southern locations of the Alabama/Georgia areas of production, the loss was a 100% wipe-out. Those producers took the full brunt of Michael’s eye-wall.

Farther north and east, losses up to 80% are being reported. Some analysts are suggesting an ultimate loss in the order of one million bales will be seen. To that end, this is some of the most superior grading fiber in America.

USDA reported improved sales and exports today. Weekly sales were 98,000 bales, up from last week’s 21,000 bases sold.

From the official report: Net sales of 98,000 RB for 2018/2019 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 44 percent from the prior 4-week average.

Increases were reported for Vietnam (70,000 RB, including 3,600 RB switched from South Korea and 1,300 RB switched from Bangladesh), Turkey (21,700 RB, including 21,300 RB late reporting), Japan (15,000 RB, including 12,200 RB late reporting and decreases of 600 RB), Pakistan (13,900 RB, including 13,500 RB late reporting and decreases of 900 RB), and South Korea (11,800 RB).

Reductions were reported for China (73,900 RB). For 2019/2020, net sales of 142,900 RB were reported for China (136,400 RB), India (4,400 RB), and El Salvador (2,100 RB).

Exports of 208,400 RB were up 16 percent from the previous week and 38 percent from the prior 4-week average. Exports were primarily to Vietnam (68,300 RB, including 8,100 late reporting), Turkey (38,000 RB, including 31,400 late reporting), Mexico (18,200 RB), Pakistan (17,200 RB), and Indonesia (14,900 RB, including 2,200 RB late reporting).

In the coming days, a more accurate picture of Michael’s damage will be known. Certainly it will render yesterday’s supply-demand numbers from USDA inaccurate. We will let the day pass and make a better assessment this afternoon.

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