The outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat this month is larger supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Wheat production is raised 7 million bushels to 1,884 million from the NASS Small Grains Summary, issued on September 28. Projected imports increased 5 million bushels to 140 million on higher-than-expected imports of spring wheat and Durum in the first quarter (June-August).
The NASS Grain Stocks report indicated a 21 percent year-to-year increase in implied disappearance for first quarter feed and residual. But record-large 2018/19 U.S. corn supplies are expected to restrain feed and residual use for the remainder of the year with the annual estimate reduced by 10 million bushels to 110 million.
Wheat exports are unchanged at 1,025 million bushels but there are offsetting by-class changes with White higher and Hard Red Winter lower. Projected ending stocks are higher at 956 million bushels but still 13 percent below last year’s revised 1,099 million.
The season-average farm price range is unchanged at the midpoint of $5.10 per bushel and the range is narrowed to $4.80 to $5.40.
Global 2018/19 wheat supplies are reduced, primarily on lower production forecasts for Australia and Russia. Australia’s production is decreased 1.5 million tons to 18.5 million on continued dry conditions and possible frost damage. This would be Australia’s smallest production since 2007/08. Russia’s wheat production is reduced 1.0 million tons to 70.0 million on lower-than-expected yields in some spring wheat areas.
Projected global 2018/19 trade is lower, almost all on reduced Australian exports, which are down 1.0 million tons to 13.0 million. Global imports are decreased with Bangladesh, Azerbaijan, and Nigeria accounting for most of the reduction. Projected 2018/19 world consumption is fractionally lower, primarily on less use in Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, and the United States. Global ending stocks are reduced 1.1 million tons to 260.2 million, down 5 percent from last year’s record.