WASDE Oilseeds: Higher Domestic Soybean Yields Offset by Reduced Harvest Area

Soybean harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson

U.S. oilseed production for 2018/19 is projected at 138.4 million tons, down 0.1 million from last month with lower soybean and sunflowerseed production only partly offset with higher canola production.

Soybean production is forecast at 4,690 million bushels, down 3.5 million with higher yields offset by lower harvested area. The soybean yield is projected at 53.1 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from the September forecast. Harvested area is reduced 0.6 million acres to 88.3 million. Increases for North Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa are more than offset by reductions in many other states.

Soybean supplies for 2018/19 are projected at a record 5,153 million bushels on higher beginning stocks. With soybean use unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 885 million bushels.

The 2018/19 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $7.35 to $9.85, unchanged at the midpoint from last month. Soybean meal and soybean oil price projections are also unchanged at $290 to $330 per short ton and 28.0 to 32.0 cents per pound, respectively.

Global oilseed production for 2018/19 is projected at 603.9 million tons, down 0.7 million from last month as lower peanut production is partly offset by higher soybean and rapeseed production. Global soybean output is projected at a record 369.5 million tons, up 0.2 million with higher production for Canada partly offset by lower projections for India, the United States, and Mexico.

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The soybean and peanut crops for India are reduced on lower area harvested based on government reports. India’s peanut yield is also reduced due to below-normal and inconsistent rainfall in Gujarat where nearly half of the peanuts are produced.

Despite lower global oilseed production, increased beginning stocks, mainly in the United States, results in a 2.0 million-ton increase to global oilseed ending stocks to 123.8 million. Global soybean ending stocks are increased 1.8 million tons to 110.0 million.

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