The 2018/19 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates show higher ending stocks, based on slightly larger production and lower exports relative to last month. Production is raised 81,000 bales, with higher production in Texas and Georgia largely offset by lower production in the Carolinas. Domestic mill use is unchanged from last month, but the export forecast is reduced 200,000 bales to 15.5 million, due to reduced world trade and consumption.
Ending stocks are forecast at 5.0 million bales, and the resulting stocks-to-use ratio of 26 percent is slightly higher than the previous month’s forecast, and the highest since 2015/16. The forecast range for the marketing year average farm price is 69.0 to 77.0 cents per pound; the midpoint of 73.0 cents is down 2 cents from the previous month’s projection.
The 2018/19 global ending stocks forecast is lowered 4 percent this month as lower production and sharply lower beginning stocks offset marginally smaller consumption. Stocks are lowered mainly in India, as revisions are made to production, consumption, and loss over 2002/03-2013/14 to better reflect Indian government data (consumption) and the impact of shifting producers’ marketing patterns.
Production forecasts are lowered for Australia, and raised for Greece and the United States. Consumption and imports are lowered for Turkey. Global beginning stocks are lowered 2.9 million bales and ending stocks are lowered 3.0 million bales. Ending stocks in 2018/19 are down 6.4 million bales from last year, largely reflecting an expected 8.2-million-bale decline in China.