WASDE Coarse Grains: Lower Corn Production, Increased Exports, Higher Ending Stocks

Corn harvest. Photo: Kostic Dusan, 123rf

This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, increased exports, reduced feed and residual use and larger ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.778 billion bushels, down 49 million on a reduced yield forecast. Harvested area is virtually unchanged from last month.

Corn supplies are forecast record high, as a smaller crop is more than offset by an increase in beginning stocks based on the September 28 Grain Stocks report. Exports are raised 75 million bushels reflecting U.S. price competitiveness and reduced exports for Russia. Projected feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels based on a lower crop and indicated disappearance during 2017/18.

Corn ending stocks for 2018/19 are raised 39 million bushels. The projected midpoint for the season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at a range of $3.00 to $4.00 per bushel.

Grain sorghum production is forecast higher from last month, as a 3.9-bushel per acre increase in yield to 75.0 bushels per acre is partially offset by a reduction in harvested area. Barley and oat production estimates are updated based on the September 28 Small Grains Summary report.

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Global coarse grain production for 2018/19 is forecast down 3.8 million tons to 1,343.4 million. The 2018/19 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production and consumption, and higher stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast modestly higher reflecting projected increases for Egypt, Mali, Kenya, Canada, the EU, and Serbia that are partly offset by reductions for Russia and Malawi. The projected corn yield for Russia is lowered based on reported harvest results to date.

Corn exports are reduced for Russia, with more than offsetting increases for the United States, Serbia, and Canada. Corn imports are raised for Mexico and Israel, with the former based on lowered expected imports of sorghum. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, mostly reflecting increases for Mexico, Egypt, and Iran that are partly offset by reductions for South Africa and Turkey. Global corn stocks, at 159.4 million tons, are up 2.3 million from last month.

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